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Friday, June 15, 2012
IS WAR WITH IRAN ON THE CARDS?
All the signs seem to indicate that the world order as we know it will not exist for long. The fight between the proponents of the new world order concepts and the conservative traditional nation state supporters is going on; in fact, it is becoming more intense. It seems that in an age of quickest movements of people in history of mankind, such terms as nation, state, homeland, traditions, religion, are being devalued whereas concepts of globalization, political correctness, free trade, world without borders are making headways constantly. However, the new world order has been in the making since the second half of 18th century, from the time when the ideas of enlightenment caught the imagination of people, and nothing substantial came out of it, notwithstanding that various efforts have been made to institutionalize transnational organizations governing various sectors of either continental or world affairs. League of Nations or present United Nations, and various offshoot organizations have been such attempts. However, these organizations are quite toothless when it comes to the most vital and contentious affairs of the contemporaneous world. Obviously, it concerns the sources of energy and possession of geostrategic masses of land. It seems that the United States at the time of neoconservatives heyday - during Gerge W. Bush's presidency - embraced an old Zbigniew Brzezinski's game plan, drawn in his book "The Grand Chessboard", regarding if not conquering Eurasia, than definitely not allowing any single power to dominate it. Obviously, Eurasia has 75% of the world population and it also has 75% of known sources of energy. If any of the world powers would succeed in achieving domination of Eurasia landmass, the United States would become a peripheral non-entity. Therefore, it does not matter who wins the 2012 presidential elections, whether it is Romney or Obama, the global policy of the United States will not get any major reset. Everything seems to confirm prediction that there will be next war in Middle East or Central Asia region. Currently, there are following powers with potential for domination of Eurasia region: Russia, China, India and European Union. Out of these four powers, only China and Russia must be considered by the United States, at this time, as the players in an expected future war. However, with each passing year, the Russian position will deteriorate, as Russia would still be preoccupied in keeping her vast territories in one piece, whereas China will be gaining in amassing its economic power as well as in capabilities of projection of that power by military means. Apparently, the US geostrategists must have realized that, and will have to preemptively use any pretext to make additional gains in Middle East and in Central Asia, before China's military power and capability to project that power has grown beyond control. The thinking must be that the US cannot afford to wait, if it is to remain a player on the world stage. For the foregoing, it seams that war with Iran is inevitable, no matter what is the pretext under international law. However, it appears that Zbigniew Brzezinski himself is now against his old "game plan" as he is afraid that war with Iran would ignite the whole world of islam against the United States. So, what is it going to be?
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Geostrategy,
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